Macroeconomic Outlook

2025 was a year in which rising trade tensions and geopolitical risks played a decisive role in shaping the global economy, protectionist policies gained strength, and growth performances showed notable divergence across regions.

In 2025, the global economy maintained a stable yet below long-term average growth trajectory amid increasing geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and the strengthening of protectionist policies. While growth remained limited in advanced economies, emerging economies recorded relatively stronger growth performance. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the global economy grew by 3.2% in 2025 and anticipates that growth may slow slightly in 2026².

Uncertainty surrounding trade policies remained elevated, while the impact of tariffs on prices proved lower than expected and risks related to labor markets came to the forefront. These developments contributed to global central banks adopting a cautious approach toward interest rate cuts. Despite geopolitical risks, the moderate pace of global demand supported a generally balanced outlook for energy and commodity prices. However, the heightened uncertainty strengthened safe-haven demand, leading to record levels in precious metals³.

" OECD " Economic Outlook Report
" IMF " World Economic Outlook
" Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye " 4th Inflation Report for 2025

U.S. Economy

The US economy diverged positively from other advanced economies in 2025, supported by strong private consumption expenditures. While inflation data released throughout the year generally remained in line with expectations, signs of weakening in the labor market constituted the main basis for interest rate cuts. The US economy grew by 3.8% in the second quarter of the year, while growth reached 4.4% in the third quarter⁴.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) implemented interest rate cuts aimed at balancing liquidity conditions following the conclusion of the monetary tightening cycle. The policy rate, which had been kept unchanged at 4.50% since the beginning of 2025, was reduced to 4.25% at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 17. The rate was further lowered to 4.00% in October and to 3.75% in November; it was maintained at this level in December, resulting in a total gradual reduction of 75 basis points^5,6.

Due to the federal government shutdown that lasted for 43 days, disruptions occurred in the data collection processes for October and November. This situation led to delays and partial data gaps in the release of certain macroeconomic indicators for the relevant period, particularly inflation data. For the monetary policy authority under the leadership of Jerome Powell, which closely monitors inflation indicators in its decision-making processes, these data limitations led to the adoption of a more cautious approach in policy assessments and a prudent stance in the timing of decisions⁷.

As the labor market continued to display a relatively resilient outlook, the Fed appeared to place greater emphasis on the inflation outlook within the framework of its dual mandate. This approach contributed to a controlled slowdown in economic growth without a significant contraction in economic activity8. On the other hand, increased tariffs introduced to support domestic demand caused fluctuations in international trade flows, with part of the demand shifting toward Middle Eastern and Asian markets⁹.

Meanwhile, the National Security Strategy doctrine published by the US administration indicated that a more inward-looking economic and trade approach prioritizing national interests could be adopted in the period ahead¹⁰.

Euro Area

The Euro Area economy followed a cautious trajectory in 2025, while the stagnation in the German economy particularly limited the overall growth performance across the region. Although the outlook for manufacturing activity and export performance remained subdued, the reshaping of trade routes following the Russia'Ukraine conflict became a determining factor in the economic structure. Nevertheless, European PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data exceeding expectations enabled economic activity to remain in the expansion zone throughout the year. Despite ongoing geopolitical and trade developments, the adverse effects of these developments on the economy remained limited, and a modest recovery in the growth outlook was anticipated for 2025.

The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a total of 100 basis points of rate cuts in its first four meetings of the year and kept the policy rate unchanged at 2.15% in the remaining meetings. The ECB emphasized that it follows a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach in its monetary policy decisions and indicated that additional rate cuts are not currently envisaged in the medium term¹¹.

In contrast to the ECB, the Bank of England (BoE) pursued a more flexible monetary policy stance, reducing its policy rate from 4.75% to 3.75% and signaling that the easing cycle could continue in the period ahead¹².

¹¹ ECB - Monetary Policy Decisions
¹² BoE - Interest Rates and Bank Rate

Middle East and Commodity Markets

Ongoing political tensions and geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East increased safe-haven demand, supporting an upward trend in gold prices. With global central banks continuing their gold purchases, the price of gold per ounce tested the record level of USD 4,550 by the end of the year.

Brent crude oil prices moved broadly in line with year-end projections, fluctuating within the range of USD 58'62 per barrel. Despite supply-increasing steps by the United States and OPEC+ countries, expectations that global demand growth will remain limited indicate that oil prices are unlikely to experience significant volatility in 2026. While the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver reached historic highs in 2025, rare earth elements, battery metals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt, and advanced microchips have increasingly emerged as strategic assets and geopolitical leverage points in global trade.

Chinese Economy

The Chinese economy in 2025 was shaped by trade tensions, weakness in the real estate sector and subdued domestic demand. Although temporary trade and tariff agreements were reached with the United States, the absence of a lasting settlement contributed to the persistence of uncertainties. Weak demand in the real estate sector exerted downward pressure on economic growth. Financial distress among the country's largest real estate developers and the initiation of bankruptcy proceedings weakened confidence in the sector. The imbalance between supply and demand led to an increase in housing inventories. This weakness in the real estate sector persisted throughout 2025 and continued to exert downward pressure on economic growth. It was also observed that problems in the Chinese real estate market created indirect effects on certain advanced economies, particularly Germany, through global trade and supply chain channels.

The Chinese economy grew by 5.2% in the second quarter of the year, while growth reached 4.8% in the third quarter. In order to support growth, the Chinese administration announced comprehensive monetary and fiscal stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts, liquidity-enhancing policies and support programs aimed at stimulating domestic demand.

The IMF projects that China's economic growth will slow to 4.8% in 2025 and to 4.2% in 2026. In the medium term, the Chinese economy is expected to settle into a more balanced growth path within the 4'5% range, rather than the high growth rates observed in previous years. Meanwhile, progress achieved in trade negotiations between the United States and China toward the end of 2025 stands out as a development that could partially limit risks stemming from external demand.